According to the draft of the hydrogen development program, developed by the Ministry, Russian hydrogen exports could reach 2,3 mln tonnes by 2030 and 9,2 mln tonnes by 2050.
However, many projects might face poor economics and low competitiveness, according to the ministry’s estimations. Therefore, effective state support should be provided to stimulate the implementation of the projects by boosting their economic performance.
In particular, the ministry proposes compensating for the costs of the project on such scale, so that effective projects’ internal rate of return (IRR) is not less than 15%. According to the Ministry’s estimates, it could require subsidies of USD 1 per kg of blue hydrogen and USD 3,5 per kg of green hydrogen.
The ministry proposes subsidies for capital expenditure, some operational expenses, loan rates as well as logistics infrastructure development.
The ministry expects that revenue from hydrogen exports will be able to partially offset revenues from traditional hydrocarbon exports that may decline as a result of the energy transition.
