In particular, the introduction of CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Мechanism) might lead to the reduction of Russian exports to the EU by 3-7%, depending on the scope of emission applied. The largest reductions are expected to happen in chemicals exports (by 60% in 2030-2035), minerals exports (30-40%), and exports of ferrous metals and petrochemicals (20% each).
Additionally, the global demand reduction for traditional energy sources and other energy-intensive products will lead to the reduction of the Russian export by 3-10% by 2050, which will result in the dropping of revenues from exports of oil, gas, and coal by 20-30%, according to the report. This will cause GDP contraction by 0,3-3%.
However, if Russia will actively participate in the energy transition by diversifying its economy, developing renewable energy industry and other low-carbon technologies, as well as actively introducing carbon regulations, it can increase its GDP by 2,2-3,4% by 2050, the report said.
