Russia may lose up to 3% of GDP as a result of energy transition — experts

The Russian economy may encounter significant losses as a result of energy transition in other countries, according to the assessment, published by the World Bank and Russian Higher School of Economics. 

In particular, the introduction of CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Мechanism) might lead to the reduction of Russian exports to the EU by  3-7%, depending on the scope of emission applied. The largest reductions are expected to happen in chemicals exports (by 60% in 2030-2035), minerals exports (30-40%), and exports of ferrous metals and petrochemicals (20% each).

Additionally, the global demand reduction for traditional energy sources and other energy-intensive products will lead to the reduction of the Russian export by 3-10% by 2050, which will result in the dropping of revenues from exports of oil, gas, and coal by 20-30%, according to the report. This will cause GDP contraction by 0,3-3%. 

However, if Russia will actively participate in the energy transition by diversifying its economy, developing renewable energy industry and other low-carbon technologies, as well as actively introducing carbon regulations, it can increase its GDP by 2,2-3,4% by 2050, the report said.